The Curmudgeon

It may well be a risky endeavor to publish a list of predictions for the coming year. It is also without doubt a cliche. This Curmudgeon gives not one whit about such; the prospect of doling out "told ya so"s all around is far more compelling. Here are my prognostications, some obvious, some fearless, for the news events of the coming year.

Her Royal Clintonness will be on the ballot come November, whether or not she gets the Democratic Party nomination.

But she won't be the only 'third party' vote splitter out there.

Ron Paul and the Loony Libertarian faction will be a General Election presence, and quite possibly a turd in the GOP Convention punch bowl.

As far as the GOP nomination, I'm calling it for John McCain- especially if the convention becomes 'brokered'. If McCain doesn't get the nod in the primaries nor remains viable heading into a brokered convention, Bloomberg and a centrist old-school GOP figure will run on a 'unity in the center' ticket.

The domestic economic crisis will really start blooming, despite the best efforts of the corporatist elite. The crisis will become a catastrophe, and it will not merely be a domestic issue by year's end- it will be global. In fact, this will be a bigger election issue than the Iraq war.

As the domestic economy declines, the immigration 'issue' will become less and less viable, as fewer undocumented aliens will find it worthwhile to cross the border. Still, the issue doesn't disappear entirely, because it remains a fear trigger, and the more reactionary politicos will suggest their tough talk and gestures somehow 'solved' the problem.

The administration will do all of jack and squat about the effects of the above on the people, but will mandate massive payouts (at taxpayer expense) to the banking and financial industries. Congress will rubber stamp it.

The Republicans will run a party platform of 'hold onto your wallets, the dems are gonna tax and spend you into an early grave'. This will have some traction from the MSM.

The Dem's platform will be centered around 'give us the numbers to do the job'. This will fall flat in the MSM, who will note the 'do nothing' nature of the 110th Congress, and any attempt by the Dems to point out the unprecedented GOP obstructionism in the Senate will be too little, too late, and too overlooked to be as effective as it might have been.

The left populists will continue to agitate loudly for some manner of Constitutional accountability, oversight, or even checks and balances, but to little effect. Left populist candidates will appear in many Congressional districts, some Senate races, and state level races. In some of those races, 'centrist' DLC dems will also be on the ballot- even moreso if HRC has to go DLC on the POTUS race.

The Iraq War will go on and on on a low simmer. The surge troops will be coming home, and while the overall violence level in Iraq will steadily incline,the fewer U.S. troops in country means fewer injuries and casualties. The spin (which will be utter bullshit, but also unchallenged bullshit) will be "Coming Home in Victory"- and any bad news will be blamed on Iraqis.

U.S. corporate interests (most notably those in Iraq) will more and more be protected by private contractors- and if those corporate interests can somehow be tied back to the U.S. Government, the private contractors will be paid by the U.S. taxpayers. This will cost more (because, hey, the Parent Corporation has to make money, and the private contractor companies need the profit), and will be far more bloodthirsty and unaccountable, but will be lauded as a 'cost-effective' solution that "Brings the Troops Home in Victory".

The Bush administration will look to Israeli-Palestinian 'peace talks' to establish some manner of textbook legacy. The end effect of these meeting will be that Bush (or far more likely, Condi) will be told in private to go fuck off, but there will be a few more photo-op bullshit events over which the rightwing fucktard drool and crayon brigades can jerk themselves off into a tizzy.

If that were not enough- there will be a moment of "Osama"-level accountability. Either the 'news' of bin Laden's demise will finally come to be accepted, or a contemporary demise will be fabricated. This won't mean the 'war on terror' will be over- oh hell no- the Al Qaeda boogerman will be even more fearsome, because "we" got their Queen bee. They'll be out for revenge now.

As for the conventions- both the parties will have more than a little dissension in the ranks; how and whether party leadership quells that unrest will be far more important than any outside protest. I wouldn't put it past the GOP to try and distract from their internal woes by placing violent infiltrators in outside protesters, and I would be very surprised if any of our crack local media is able to figure it out in time.

Two rulings from the SCOTUS of import: the DC Handgun Band ruling and the Indiana Voter Fraud ruling. The Second Amendment will be even more muddied- the possibility of gun controls and confiscations will remain, and how this ruling will ultimately break down is that the 'wrong types' (read here: the black, brown, and poor) of people will have less and less chance to get guns. The Voter fraud ruling will allow the states to play 'photo ID' registration games.

Heading into November, we will have many wedged, divided, and passionate races- all bollocksed up enough to be confusing enough and close enough for shenanigans. And there will be shenanigans from coast to coast, and border to border. Surprise! Guess who wins? Yup, the candidates with the deepest pockets thanks to corporate owners will get the nod.

What should be enough to have freedom-loving people demanding the return to government by consent out in the streets will result in a few isolated incidents, maybe. These cases will be dismissed as pent-up tinfoil hat extremists.

2008 will close with a nation more divided- bitterly, suspiciously, angrily divided- and a nation more under the corporate thumb, because as divided the nation will be, it will also be a nation desperate with economic fear. Rather than rising up against the system which becomes more and more clearly intent on grinding the working classes (and unless you're in the wealthy elite, you're working class, baby) into darkness, the vast majorities of the States will keep their heads down that much further, and hope they can manage their debt.